A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
